Attention Charlotte small business owners and retailers: nearly half of holiday shoppers are already spending money. According to the National Retail Federation, 49% of consumers will start their Christmas season shopping before Hallowe'en. 

Consumers plan to spend $997.73 on gifts, holiday items, and other non-gift purchases for themselves and their families this year, according to the annual survey released today by the NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics.

In all, based on forecasts from Deloitte, the world's largest accounting firm, Charlotte consumers are expected to spend between $10.9 and $11.1 billion during the holiday shopping period. This would be a 7-9% increase over 2020.

"We anticipate strong consumer spending for the upcoming holiday season. As vaccination rates rise and consumers are more comfortable being outside of the home, we are likely to see increased spending on services, including restaurants and travel, while spending on goods will continue to hold steady. A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated this season," said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster. "Further, e-commerce sales will continue to grow as consumers demonstrate an ongoing and steady movement toward buying online across all categories."

Charlotte retailers are noticing that the opening bell for holiday shopping has rung earlier than ever for local shoppers.

There are 448,600 school-aged children in the Charlotte area.  Based on forecasts from the National Retail Federation (NRF), local parents are expected to spend a record $316 million to prepare these kids to return to the classroom this fall. 

Overall, the NRF expects back-to-school shoppers to spend almost 10% more in 2021 than they did last year.

“The pandemic forced parents and their school-aged children to quickly adapt to virtual learning, and they did it with an incredible amount of resolve and flexibility,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “We enter the new school year with plans to return to the classroom and retailers are prepared to help Americans find and purchase whatever they need to make this transition as seamless as possible.”

According to the NRF, more than 51% of parents have already started buying for their K-12 students.  But, for Charlotte business owners there is still time to benefit.

The NRF reports that nearly 76% of K-12 shoppers are still waiting on lists of school supplies needed. On average, consumers have only completed 18% of the shopping.

There are 559,886 millennials in the Charlotte area.  The oldest of them turn 40 this year. According to The Pew Research Center, millennials comprise the generation of Americans born between 1981 and 1996.

As a consumer group, millennials account for an outsized percentage of retail spending. This generation represents 25.9% of the Charlotte area population but almost one-third of metro-area sales. 

All in, Charlotte millennials are expected to ring up more than $16.9 billion in purchases during 2021.  You name it, millennials are planning to buy it.

According to Nielsen, over the next 12 months, Charlotte millennials will be showing up in huge numbers at auto dealerships, furniture stores, mattress stores, appliance stores, home improvement stores, and scores of other area retailers and service providers.

Now would be a good time for Charlotte small business owners to consider increasing their advertising expenditures.

There are just over 92,000 small businesses in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC metro area, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Based on some promising retail sales data, the Overall  Sentiment Index among local small business owners has improved 28.5% between April 26 and October 12 of this year.

The best news for business owners came from the Commerce Department on Friday when it reported that retail sales rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.9% in September. This is the fifth straight month of gains.

Local retail gains are being powered by improving consumer confidence and a large pool of cash sitting in people's savings accounts.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 101.8 in September, up 17.9% from August. This means consumers are in the mood to spend. Fortunately, they have money in the bank to do so.

Charlotte area shoppers are expected to spend over $9.8 billion during this year's November-January holiday season. This estimate is based on a forecast issued last week by Deloitte, the world's largest business accounting firm.  This spending represents a 1-1.5% increase  versus the same period last year.

How can Charlotte small business owners best compete for a significant share of the 2020 holiday expenditures?

"Retailers who prioritize customers’ desires for a safe, efficient shopping journey will be the big winners this year," writes Sean Gundz on www.ChainstoreAge.com.

"The holiday season is always a stressful time for retailers, especially the ones that make the majority of their revenue in the short window between Thanksgiving and Christmas," says Mr. Gundz. 

"Within this window is Black Friday, which, along with other big holiday sales events, are going to look a lot different this year. Retailers must accommodate COVID-19 mandates that enable social distancing, minimize surface touching, and actually restrict foot traffic in their facilities. All while trying to optimize sales."

Mr. Gundz says there is no single way to deal with the challenges facing retailers this holiday season. He does offer five tips, though, that every Charlotte retailer can employ.

Charlotte area consumers are expected to spend $72 million on Halloween related activities in 2020, according to information from the National Retail Federation.  This would be a slight 2.3% decrease from 2019. This is proof of the holiday's strong resistance to the pressures of a pandemic economy.

Based on data from the NRF's annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, more than 1.2 million Charlotte adults plan to participate in Halloween-related activities. Among those celebrants, safe at-home activities ranked highest: 53 percent plan to decorate their homes, 46 percent plan to carve a pumpkin, and 18 percent will dress up their pet.

“Consumers continue to place importance on celebrating our traditional holidays, even if by untraditional standards,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Retailers are prepared to meet the increased demand for seasonal décor, costumes, and other items that allow families the opportunity to observe Halloween safely.”

To earn a large share of Halloween spending in 2020, Charlotte small business owner will need to advertise to let consumers know their stores are open, stocked, and ready. By any metric, advertising on Charlotte radio is the best way to reach holiday shoppers.

Based on projections from the National Retail Federation, Charlotte area parents are expected to spend $288 million to equip K-12 kids for the upcoming school year. If so, then this shopping spree will be 29% bigger than last year's and the biggest take since 2012.

“By any measure, this is an unprecedented year with great uncertainty, including how students will get their education this fall whether they are in kindergarten or college,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay says.

“Most parents don’t know whether their children will be sitting in a classroom or in front of a computer in the dining room, or a combination of the two. But they do know the value of an education and are navigating uncertainty and unknowns so that students are prepared."

Along with pencils, paper, pens, and knapsacks, the NRF survey says 63 percent of K-12 families expect to buy computers and other electronics this year, up from 54% last year, and they expect to spend more at an average $274.44, up from $203.44 last year. The $71 difference accounts for the largest share of the overall increase in average spending of almost $93.

Also, because many parents are unsure if learning will take place at school or at home, back-to-school spending this year is expected to include home furnishings such as desks, chairs, and lamps.

To claim a meaningful share of this year's booming back-to-school economy, local retailers will need to advertise to let parents know that their stores are open, it is safe to shop, and the needed supplies are in stock.

By any metric, the best way to reach these parents is on Charlotte radio.